So let me get started!
A great book that I have read recently is called "The Second Machine Age."
M.I.T. professors Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, authors of the best seller “Race Against The
Machine,” write a follow up thesis in "The Second Machine Age" published January 2014.
“Race Against The Machine” focused on the fact that machines started
doing to white collar jobs what robotics previously did to blue collar
jobs. “The Second Machine Age” takes
the idea one step further and points out examples where machines have
recently begun doing tasks that until now were considered uniquely
human.
When the steam
engine was improved by James Watt it was a turning point in human history. Prior
to Watt’s invention engines were too inefficient, harnessing only 1% of the
energy released when burning coal. In 1775 Watt increased this more than three-fold
which made all the difference. This lead to the industrial revolution which
allowed us to overcome the limitations of muscle power. After that, human
development and populations started to grow exponentially. In this book the scientist's
theory is that computers are now
making such unprecedented advances that we are heading into a "second
machine age" which will have a similar effect on humanity's mental
power than the steam engine had on muscle power.
Computers were
invented long ago but new technology can take decades to deploy as businesses
change their processes. Over the past few years computers have started
surprising the authors. Computers have facilitated driver-less car
technology and have become adept at translation and speech recognition
which are areas that were expected to be dominated by humans for some time to come.
The book tries to explain why this is happening. Firstly they point at the fathomless nature of exponential
growth. Humans have a tendency to underestimate exponential growth or the
compound doubling of a number. Around 1970 Moore’s law was
hypothesized. It stated processing
power per unit of area would double every year. That rule has held to this day. The cost per unit of processing power has
halved every year too. In 1996 the
fastest computer in the world for that time was produced for $55 million
and fit on nearly 1,600 square feet of floor space. 9 years later the same
processing power was sold on shelves for $500 and was called the Sony
PlayStation 3. Massive improvements also happened in other hardware such as
cameras and sensors. Secondly, the scientists say that nowadays
data is vastly accessible and
aggregated and that networks are highly inter-connected. Thirdly, with
every technological advance comes the potential for new combinations of
technologies and with them new possibilities. A technology made up
of a
combination of other technologies is called a recombinant
technology. The Internet is itself a recombinant
technology made up of "the much
older tcp/ip data transmission network, a markup language called HTML and a
simple PC application called a browser to display the results."
Today an
unprecedented number of humans have access to an unprecedented amount of
data. In 2000 there were 700 million mobile phone subscriptions. In 2012
there were more than 6 billion and over three-quarters of the people in the
world now have phone access. Simple handsets can have a big impact on
society. An economist Robert Jensen studied coastal villages in India and
found fish prices stabilized, prices dropped and profits increased as soon
as fishermen acquired mobile phones and were able to eliminate the waste
that occurred, when they stopped taking their fish to markets that already had enough
supply for the day. On another note, because 70% of the phones sold worldwide in 2012
were smartphones the number of people potentially working on recombinant
technology has increased enormously.
After this the book examines the impact of these technological changes on the economy.
Technological
advances create productivity gains but around the year 1990 median wages stopped
tracking productivity. In other words, the
fact that a piece of technology can
be quickly accessible to vast numbers of people across the planet is
great
for entrepreneurs and persons with skills which can be leveraged
across a
million new customers but
it looks
like the financial advantages of new
technology are not ending up in the average person's pocket. Digitization super-charges
propagation of popular content and turns today's world into a winner-take-all market creating even bigger wage spreads the higher you
get on
the wage scale. The authors
argue that the decoupling of median wages and productivity growth that has
occurred since the nineties is due to the second machine age. They posit a
dystopia of joblessness as machines replace humans in both computational
and mechanical tasks.
However, there is hope. Chess champion Garry Kasparov lost to the first
computer in 1997 but chess teams of "human plus machine" beat
even the strongest computers today. That is because machines are no good at coming up with new ideas. We have never
seen truly creative, entrepreneurial or innovative machines. "These
activities have one thing in common... coming up with new ideas or
concepts."
As compelling as
these thoughts are I personally don't like the way the book continues
after about half way through. The authors try to crystalize ways in
which people and governments can prepare for this second machine age. The
potential effects of technology seem too unpredictable to me to make any further extrapolation and concrete solution-finding possible. I did enjoy their reference to
the principal of basic income and can only imagine the up-cry that would be heard if such a policy change was attempted in the United States today. The principal behind it is this: if androids replace workers and unemployment
goes up as a result it would be bad news for the economy since unemployed people
don’t create much demand for goods. A vicious cycle can take hold. To counteract this it is suggested the unemployed should receive a guaranteed income even if they are not working. A
surprising number of economists have supported guaranteed income for the
poor. Bertrand Russell, Martin Luther and Milton Friedman are just some of
the economists mentioned to have supported the idea. Additionally, after 1200 economists
signed a letter in support of the idea in 1967 Richard Nixon tried to enact
it into law.
I could have skipped the second half of the book but I found
the first half thrilling. The idea that
in the near future we will see new technology which moves beyond our wildest
dreams is a spectacular thought!
Outside of this plog, I am building a tech platform which will allow people to
participate in a community for political change. The platform will have
a mechanism to allow our community to enact change within the world
of American politics. Stay tuned for this exciting development!
